Nvidia Feb 25 Earnings: Historical Stock Moves After Reports
The leading artificial intelligence technology company has consistently outperformed analyst consensus earnings projections in 20 out of the previous 22 quarters. Nvidia, trading under the ticker NVDA with a recent 1.21% decline, is set to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results, covering the period ended January 25, on Wednesday, February 25, following the close of regular market trading hours.
Why Nvidia’s Earnings Reports Are Highly Anticipated
Over recent years, Nvidia’s quarterly earnings disclosures have emerged as the standout events during earnings seasons. As the foremost producer of artificial intelligence chips and associated AI infrastructure components, the company serves as a key barometer for the overall health and trajectory of the AI sector. Beyond that, Nvidia holds a pivotal role as an indicator for broader stock market trends, given its position as the highest-valued entity within the S&P 500 index.
Several recent developments strongly indicate that Nvidia is poised to deliver exceptional performance in its upcoming quarterly report.
Image source: Getty Images.
Indications of an Outstanding Quarter Ahead for Nvidia
To begin with, major hyperscalers—those large technology firms managing expansive data centers—and other prominent software enterprises have announced plans to significantly ramp up their already substantial capital expenditure budgets throughout 2026. A large portion of these investments is earmarked specifically for advancing AI initiatives. Such escalated expenditures on constructing AI data centers represent a substantial tailwind for Nvidia, given that its graphics processing units, or GPUs, maintain a commanding presence in the markets essential for training AI models and performing AI inference, which involves deploying AI applications in real-world scenarios.
Additionally, Nvidia’s Chief Executive Officer, Jensen Huang, during an interview in November after the disclosure of the firm’s fiscal second-quarter outcomes, characterized the demand for the company’s innovative Blackwell platform data center offerings as reaching extraordinary levels, describing it as ‘off the charts.’ During that period, Nvidia was actively expanding its production capabilities for Blackwell-enabled AI products to fulfill the intense market demand. Furthermore, during his keynote at the Consumer Electronics Show, known as CES 2026, in January, Huang featured a presentation slide that labeled the demand for AI computing solutions as ‘insane,’ underscoring the fervor surrounding these technologies.
Nvidia’s Guidance for Fiscal Q4 and Consensus Analyst Projections
The table presented below outlines Nvidia’s fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 actual results, the company’s provided guidance for fiscal fourth-quarter 2026, the anticipated growth rates from Nvidia’s perspective, and the consensus estimates compiled by Wall Street analysts for the same period, along with their projected growth figures.
| Metric | Q4 Fiscal 2025 Result | Nvidia’s Q4 Fiscal 2026 Guidance | Nvidia’s Projected Growth | Wall Street’s Q4 Fiscal 2026 Consensus Estimate | Wall Street’s Projected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $39.33 billion | $65 billion | 65% | $65.58 billion | 67% |
| Adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings per share (EPS) | $0.89 | $1.50* | 69% | $1.52 | 71% |
Data sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Fiscal Q4 2026 ended Jan. 25. GAAP refers to generally accepted accounting principles. *This calculation was performed by the author using the metrics detailed in management’s guidance.
Similar to the approach taken in the prior quarter, Nvidia’s guidance deliberately excludes any anticipated sales of data center AI chips to customers in China.
Wall Street Expectations for Nvidia’s Upcoming Fiscal Q1 Guidance
A business’s forward-looking guidance, particularly when measured against prevailing Wall Street expectations, frequently exerts a profound influence on its share price movements immediately after an earnings announcement. In certain instances, this forward guidance can overshadow the actual results from the just-completed quarter, as market participants tend to prioritize prospective opportunities over historical achievements.
The following table summarizes the consensus analyst projections for Nvidia’s fiscal first quarter of 2027, a period that concludes in late April 2026.
| Metric | Q1 Fiscal 2026 Result | Wall Street’s Q1 Fiscal 2027 Consensus Estimate | Wall Street’s Projected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $44.06 billion | $70.8 billion | 61% |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.81 | $1.65 | 104% |
Data source: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Fiscal Q1 2027 ends in late April 2026.
Nvidia’s Impressive History of Surpassing Earnings Expectations
Nvidia boasts a remarkable history of surpassing Wall Street’s consensus earnings estimates, which suggests a strong likelihood of achieving this feat once again on February 25. The data covering the past 22 quarters, equivalent to 5.5 years of reporting periods, is detailed below. For clarity, the outcomes from the four most recent quarters are isolated to highlight the latest trends. While the margins of outperformance have moderated somewhat in these recent periods, this can be attributed to Nvidia’s management gaining enhanced foresight into upcoming quarters, thanks to a substantial backlog of confirmed orders. Consequently, the company can furnish more precise guidance, which analysts then incorporate into their refined estimate models.
| Period | Earnings* Results Relative to Wall Street’s Consensus Estimate | Magnitude of Earnings Beat (Average) | Magnitude of Earnings Beat (Range) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 22 reported quarters | 20/22 beats = 90.9% | 10%** | 3% to 32%** |
| Most recently reported four quarters | 4/4 beats = 100% | 5.2% | 3.5% to 8.5% |
Data source: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Calculations by the author. *Earnings measured as adjusted earnings per share (EPS). **Figures rounded to the nearest whole number.
Analyzing Nvidia Stock Performance Following Earnings Announcements
The subsequent data illustrates the extent of Nvidia’s earnings surprises or shortfalls alongside the corresponding stock price movements on the trading day immediately succeeding each earnings release, spanning the prior 11 quarters. This specific timeframe of 11 quarters was selected intentionally, as it aligns precisely with the period since generative AI technologies ignited explosive demand for advanced AI capabilities. The widespread introduction of generative AI to consumers and corporate decision-makers occurred prominently with OpenAI’s launch of its ChatGPT chatbot toward the end of 2022.
Naturally, shareholders appreciate seeing Nvidia’s stock price surge in the wake of its quarterly earnings disclosures. However, it is crucial to recognize that post-earnings stock movements are influenced by a variety of elements extending beyond the raw earnings figures themselves. These include the prevailing conditions in the broader market, shifts in investor sentiment regarding AI-related equities—which have exhibited considerable volatility—and other macroeconomic factors. For investors with a long-term horizon, the emphasis should remain squarely on Nvidia’s underlying financial achievements and its forward guidance rather than fixating on immediate post-earnings price fluctuations.
| Quarter | Period Ending | Magnitude of Earnings Beat/(Miss)* | Stock Price Change Day After Earnings Release |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 fiscal 2026 | Late October 2025 | 3% | (3.2%) |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 | Late July 2025 | 4% | (0.8%) |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 | Late April 2025 | 8% | 3.3% |
| Q4 fiscal 2025 | Late January 2025 | 5% | (8.5%) |
| Q3 fiscal 2025 | Late October 2024 | 9% | 0.5% |
| Q2 fiscal 2024 | Late July 2024 | 6% | (6.4%) |
| Q1 fiscal 2025 | Late April 2024 | 10% | 9.3% |
| Q4 fiscal 2024 | Late January 2024 | 12% | 16.4% |
| Q3 fiscal 2024 | Late October 2023 | 19% | (2.5%) |
| Q2 fiscal 2024 | Late July 2023 | 32% | 0.1% |
| Q1 fiscal 2024 | Late April 2023 | 18% | 24.4% |
Data sources: Nvidia, Yahoo! Finance, and YCharts. *Rounded to the nearest whole number.
From this historical dataset, it becomes evident that there exists no robust or consistent correlation between the scale of Nvidia’s earnings beat and the subsequent day’s stock price reaction following the earnings release.
Nevertheless, this observation need not deter investors oriented toward the long term. Provided that Nvidia sustains its trajectory of robust financial results and optimistic forward projections, its stock valuation is likely to appreciate steadily over extended periods.
