Bitcoin Short-Term Whales Face Deeper Losses Amid Binance Inflows

Elena Rossi February 17, 2026 2 min read

Bitcoin's value persisted in stabilizing around the $68,000 mark on Tuesday, yet ongoing fragility beneath this threshold could trigger further selling from the most recent group of major investors.

Although established whales holding positions over extended periods continue to enjoy gains, those who accumulated more recently are grappling with substantial unrealized deficits. An expert pointed out the potential influence of this dynamic on Bitcoin's valuation, with various metrics suggesting a persistent bearish trajectory.

Key Insights

Short-term Bitcoin whales are currently experiencing net unrealized losses amounting to 22% based on prevailing prices.
The whale inflow ratio on Binance has increased to 0.62 from 0.4 over the past two weeks, indicating heightened deposits from large holders.
Long-term whales dominate 71% of the supply in large wallets and stay profitable above their average acquisition price of $41,626.

Emerging Bitcoin Whales Confront Growing Unrealized Losses

Market observer Carmelo Alemán observed that wallets containing between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC currently manage a total of 4.483 million BTC. Of this amount, 1.287 million BTC, or 28.7%, is held by short-term holder (STH) whales, whereas 3.196 million BTC, representing 71.3%, is controlled by long-term holder (LTH) whales.

The disparity in their cost bases is noteworthy. For STH whales, the realized price stands at $88,494, resulting in a 22% unrealized loss. In contrast, LTH whales have a realized price of $41,626, securing them a robust 65% profit margin.

Bitcoin realized price for new and old whales. Source: CryptoQuant

Alemán elaborated that this imbalance underscores the strain on newer whale participants, while veteran holders benefit from a substantial buffer against market dips.

Nevertheless, the actual losses realized by STH whales have stayed contained since Bitcoin reached its peak of $126,000 in October 2025, demonstrating notable steadfastness among these investors.

The pivotal support level lingers around $41,626, corresponding to the LTH realized price. Should Bitcoin maintain levels above this point, the on-chain data suggests a phase of redistribution rather than outright capitulation, according to the analyst.

Bitcoin Whale Deposits Surge on Binance as Pressure Mounts on Veteran Holders

The Binance whale inflow ratio, which gauges the proportion of the ten largest BTC deposits against overall inflows, has climbed to 0.62 from 0.4 from February 2 through Sunday. This elevation points to escalating sell-side momentum driven by whales.

Whale inflow ratio on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

Crypto analyst Darkfost noted that a portion of this influx is attributed to the "Hyperunit whale," responsible for transferring nearly 10,000 BTC to Binance.

Furthermore, the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) for LTHs has declined to 0.88. This metric evaluates whether coins are moved at a gain or loss, with values under 1 signifying realized losses. The monthly SOPR average holds steady at 1.09, and the yearly average is 1.87, affirming that long-term holders' profitability remains secure.

In addition, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson indicated that the long-term holder net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) metric is at 0.36, reflecting ongoing positive unrealized gains.

Wedson added that in previous market cycles, bottoms only materialized after this indicator dipped into negative territory, suggesting Bitcoin might require further downside to validate full capitulation among long-term holders.