Bitcoin Faces Worst Q1 Since 2018 After 22% Decline
Bitcoin appears to be on a trajectory toward its most challenging first quarter in eight years, as market statistics reveal a substantial downturn of 22.3% from the beginning of the year. The cryptocurrency kicked off 2026 trading at approximately $87,700, but it has since plummeted by nearly $20,000, reaching recent lows around $68,000. This trajectory positions it for the poorest quarterly opening performance since the intense 2018 bear market, during which it experienced a staggering drop of almost 50%, based on insights from market tracking platforms like CoinGlass.
Examining Bitcoin’s historical patterns, the asset has encountered declines in seven out of the previous thirteen first quarters. Notable instances include 2025 with an 11.8% loss, 2020 with a 10.8% reduction, and the most severe case in 2018, where it lost 49.7% within a mere three months. Market commentator Daan Trades Crypto highlighted on Sunday that the initial quarter of any year tends to exhibit significant volatility. He emphasized that developments during this period do not typically dictate longer-term trends, drawing from extensive historical price movements and seasonal behaviors observed in the cryptocurrency space.
First Simultaneous Red Months for January and February?
Throughout its history, Bitcoin has rarely witnessed back-to-back losses in the opening months of consecutive years, with such occurrences limited primarily to the bearish periods of 2018 and 2022. In contrast, Ethereum has fared better, posting losses in only three of its last nine first quarters. However, the ongoing quarter is emerging as its third-worst on record, marked by a sharp 34.3% decline to date. This situation underscores the broader altcoin vulnerabilities amid Bitcoin’s lead decline.
Adding to the concerns, Bitcoin is poised to record its inaugural instance of both January and February closing negatively in the same year. The digital asset shed 10.2% during January and has further depreciated by 13.4% through the early weeks of February. To avert a negative close for the month, it would need to rally back above the $80,000 threshold, a recovery that appears challenging given current momentum and selling pressures.
Bitcoin’s Decline Signals Correction, Not Breakdown
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, shared his perspective with industry observers, characterizing the current Bitcoin price retracement amid ongoing worldwide economic instability as a standard correction rather than an indication of fundamental long-term weakness. He noted that although near-term downward forces might escalate should broader macroeconomic challenges endure, Bitcoin’s track record demonstrates remarkable durability. This resilience frequently paves the way for vigorous rebounds in subsequent periods, bolstered by escalating institutional interest, the structural impacts of halving events, and evolving market dynamics that reinforce its foundational strengths.
At the moment of analysis, Bitcoin has extended its downward streak into a fifth straight week of losses, slipping an additional 2.3% in the last 24 hours to hover around $68,670, as reported by leading price aggregators like CoinGecko. This persistent correction aligns with heightened market capitulation, reminiscent of prior stress points, yet analysts point to underlying support levels and historical recoveries as reasons for measured optimism beyond the immediate turbulence.
The first quarter’s notorious unpredictability often serves as a testing ground for investor conviction, separating short-term speculators from long-term holders. While the 22% year-to-date drop evokes memories of 2018’s brutal sell-off, key differentiators such as matured infrastructure, spot ETF integrations, and corporate treasury allocations provide a more robust foundation today. Should macroeconomic conditions stabilize—potentially through anticipated policy shifts or easing inflation—Bitcoin could pivot swiftly, leveraging its cyclical recovery patterns observed post-Q1 in multiple prior cycles.
Market participants are closely monitoring on-chain metrics, including exchange inflows, long-term holder behavior, and liquidation cascades, to gauge the depth of this correction. Despite the gloom, reduced leverage and capitulation events often mark bottoms, setting stages for renewed accumulation phases that have historically propelled Bitcoin to new heights later in the year.
