Bitcoin Bull Run Targets $75K Amid Key Technical Signals

Bitcoin kicks off the new week at a pivotal juncture, with market analysts highlighting the potential for a fresh short squeeze to propel prices upward.

Bitcoin Bullish Analysis Eyes a Trip to $75,000 This Week

• Bitcoin wrapped up the previous week above the crucial 200-week trend line, sparking renewed optimism for a push toward $75,000.
• Liquidation levels continue to remain high, and one trader observes that long positions are poised to take control moving forward.
• Upcoming US inflation figures are stacking up, likely to introduce risk-asset volatility later in the week.
• Onchain profitability metrics for Bitcoin present a concerning outlook, as the net unrealized profit and loss ratio reaches peaks not seen in three years.
• Unprofitable UTXOs indicate that Bitcoin could be entering the early stages of a fresh bear market.

Bitcoin Confronts 2024 Trading Range Amid Heightened Uncertainty

Bitcoin experienced a notably stable weekly candle close on Sunday, yet traders fully recognize the importance of the prevailing price range. Trading at approximately $68,800 on Bitstamp according to TradingView data, the weekly close positioned itself above a vital long-term trend line that holds substantial implications for potential upward movements.

With the current price hovering at $68,343, the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) stands as one of two critical support levels for market participants. The second is Bitcoin’s previous all-time high from 2021, which sits just above $69,000.

Trader CrypNuevo pointed out in his recent X analysis, “We’re back inside an old important range that kept price for 7 months!” He drew attention to the prolonged rangebound pattern centered around $69,000 that BTC/USD maintained throughout much of 2024.

CrypNuevo further explained that during the past week, the pair retraced nearly half of its wick toward the 15-month lows recorded earlier in February, a development that may carry weight for the overall price trajectory. “So Bitcoin might range here for some time, meaning that price could test the range lows,” his analysis elaborated. He specified conditions for a deeper pullback: “Only if: 1. Bitcoin drops back to the 50% wick-fill level (signal for 100% wick-fill). 2. Acceptance below 100% wick.”

The trader highlighted a potential rebound to $75,000 as a catalyst for a “surprise recovery,” emphasizing that Bitcoin often moves counter to prevailing market sentiment. He wrapped up by noting, “A lot of uncertainty for the upcoming week. Also, Monday is bank holiday in the US so expecting irregular volatility (probably low volatility that day).”

Crypto Liquidations Surge Near $70,000 Bitcoin Price Levels

Even though Bitcoin’s price has shown limited volatility following its rebound from $59,000 lows, the broader cryptocurrency market stays extremely reactive to minor fluctuations. This sensitivity manifests in persistently high liquidation volumes, where both long and short positions near the spot price face frequent wipeouts.

CoinGlass data indicates that total liquidations across cryptocurrencies exceeded $250 million in the 24 hours leading up to the latest update, all while BTC/USD fluctuated within a narrow band of less than $3,000.

As the new week commences, CoinGlass reveals traders aggressively building long BTC positions just below $68,000. Analyst CW remarked that these clusters are now prime targets for larger market players or whales. However, CW offered a positive note for bullish traders, stating that long positions continue to dominate the landscape. “Despite significant liquidation of BTC long positions, longs remain dominant. Expectations for a bullish trend remain intact,” CW shared with followers on X.

On Friday, when BTC/USD briefly surged beyond $70,000 at the Wall Street open, short liquidations shattered recent highs, totaling 10,700 BTC—the largest daily figure since September 2024. Crypto exchange Bitfinex commented on X, “If spot demand follows, this squeeze could be the first sign the downside trend is running out of steam.”

PCE and GDP Data Set to Drive Macro Volatility This Week

US markets observe a closure for Presidents’ Day on Monday, delaying major economic releases and any resulting volatility in risk assets until later days. Leading the pack is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation, alongside Q4 GDP figures scheduled for Friday.

This PCE release arrives at a sensitive time for Federal Reserve decisions, as recent inflation readings have painted an inconsistent economic picture, fostering market indecision. Hopes for policy easing in March linger faintly, even after last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell short of forecasts. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows over 90% probability that rates will stay unchanged next month.

Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter warned X followers, “Expect more volatility this week,” while outlining the key macro calendar. “Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain and macroeconomic uncertainty is elevated.”

In its latest newsletter, The Market Mosaic from Mosaic Asset Company scrutinized last week’s US employment data as a complicating factor for Fed rate cut expectations. “The report is clouding the outlook for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with market-implied odds pointing to two quarter-point rate cuts later this year. However, the 2-year Treasury yield that leads changes in the fed funds rate is near the low end of the current fed funds range and suggests no cuts at all,” the analysis detailed.

Onchain Analysis Spotlights Mid-$50,000 Support Zone

In newly published market research on Monday, onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant emphasized that prospective Bitcoin price floors will hinge increasingly on “investor resilience.” Reflecting on early February, contributor GugaOnChain cautioned of a potential critical juncture where two pivotal price levels below $60,000 intersect.

This zone features Bitcoin’s 200-week simple moving average (SMA) aligning with its realized price—the average cost basis of all coins last transacted onchain. “Bitcoin’s 50% collapse toward the 200-period moving average on the weekly timeframe — which converge with the region of its realized price at $55,800 — will be a significant test, besides being seen by analysts as a region conducive to accumulation,” GugaOnChain explained in a Quicktake post. “However, the turn toward recovery now depends on investor resilience.”

The study also examined subdued readings on the net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) metric, which gauges the profitability of Bitcoin holdings network-wide. NUPL stands at 0.201 after recovering from 0.11 lows on February 6—the deepest since March 2023. GugaOnChain labeled this as residing in the “fear region.”

Bitcoin Onchain Metrics Hint at Potential Lack of True Bottom

Additional onchain profitability indicators suggest the ongoing Bitcoin price decline might signal the onset of a “regime change” rather than a mere temporary setback. CryptoQuant utilized the adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR), which assesses the ratio of coins transacted at profit versus loss levels relative to their prior movements.

By filtering out coins moved multiple times within an hour, aSOPR minimizes noise from non-impactful trades. On February 6, it dipped below the 1.0 breakeven threshold, signaling widespread realized losses unseen since 2023 and the conclusion of Bitcoin’s prior bear market. “In 2019 and 2023, similar readings occurred during deep corrective phases where coins were being spent at a loss,” noted contributor Woo Minkyu in a Quicktake. “Each time, this zone represented capitulation pressure and structural reset. Now, aSOPR is again pressing into that same region.”

Woo characterized the present setup as mirroring “prior bear transition phases.” “Unlike mid-cycle pullbacks where aSOPR quickly reclaims 1.0, this move shows sustained weakness and loss realization. If aSOPR fails to reclaim 1.0 soon, this increases the probability that we are not in a simple correction — but transitioning into a broader bear phase,” he cautioned. Currently at 0.996, aSOPR has only flickered above breakeven sporadically in recent weeks. “aSOPR is signaling structural deterioration. This looks less like a dip, and more like a regime shift,” Woo summarized. “The real bottom may still require deeper compression before a durable reversal forms.”